In Minot^↗ET, North Dakota's fourth-largest school district, 25.9% of Native American students graduated on time in 2024. Seven years earlier, that number was 85.7%.

The 59.8 percentage-point collapse is not an artifact of a tiny sample. Fifty-eight Native American students were in the 2024 graduating cohort in Minot, and the rate has been below 60% for seven straight years. The 2024 figure is the lowest on record, and it sits inside a district where every demographic group is losing ground.

Not just a Native American problem

The Native American collapse is the sharpest edge of a district-wide decline. Minot's overall rate has fallen from 89.2% to 69.9% since 2013, with every subgroup posting losses. But the scale is different: white students dropped 12.8 points, economically disadvantaged students dropped 27 points, and Native American students dropped 59.8. The racial gap is not simply tracking the district's broader troubles: it is accelerating away from them.

The 52-point racial gap

The disparity between white and Native American graduation rates in Minot has widened to 51.7 percentage points. In a single district, white students graduate at three times the rate of their Native American peers.

The pattern is not a single-year anomaly. After reaching 85.7% in 2017, the Native American rate dropped to 40.7% in 2018, recovered slightly to 56% in 2019, then fell again. The 2022-2024 stretch produced rates of 29.2%, 40.4%, and 25.9%. Whatever drove the 2017 peak proved unsustainable.

Minot sits in north-central North Dakota, roughly 100 miles south of the Turtle Mountain Indian Reservation. The city's Native American population has grown steadily, and with it the number of Native American students entering the graduation pipeline. The cohort grew from 11 students in 2013 to 58 in 2024. A growing population receiving worse outcomes represents a compounding challenge.

Growing diversity, declining outcomes

Minot's student body has become more diverse over the past decade. The Black cohort doubled from 21 to 43; the Hispanic cohort nearly quadrupled from 12 to 45; the Native American cohort grew from 22 to 58. In every case, the graduation rate fell as the population grew. Economically disadvantaged students, at 53.4%, are now 27 points below where they started. The district has not scaled its support systems to match its changing demographics.

The statewide context

Minot's 69.9% rate sits 12.5 points below the statewide average of 82.4%, which is itself at an all-time low. Among North Dakota's large districts, only Williston Basin^↗ET (68.6%) posts a lower rate. Fargo^↗ET (80%) and West Fargo^↗ET (79.9%) are both declining but remain roughly 10 points above Minot.

The 25.9% Native American graduation rate in Minot is far below the statewide Native American rate of 63.4%, which is itself 24 points below the white rate. Whatever factors are driving the statewide Native American graduation gap are operating at roughly double the intensity in Minot.

The barriers are concrete: long bus routes across rural distances, inconsistent internet access that makes credit recovery programs harder to reach, and a curriculum that often lacks the culturally specific programming tribal education advocates have pushed for.

Minot Public Schools did not respond to a request for comment.

Data source

Data from the North Dakota Department of Public Instruction. Graduation rates represent four-year cohort rates. All years use the end-year convention (2024 = class of 2024).

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